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WATCH: The 6 most incredible completions of NFL Week 3, according to Next Gen Stats


The NFL blesses us with huge catches every week. Here are some improbable catches from Week 3.

The biggest NFL catches of the week deserve to be appreciated. Not only do they take pinpoint accuracy from quarterbacks, but proper positioning from players and athletic ability to leap and grab.

We’ve tracked the most improbable completions from Week 1 and Week 2, but Week 3 might be the best yet. Keep it locked here for an updated list of videos of the best and most improbable completions of the week.

Jalen Hurts to A.J. Brown for an 38-yard reception (22.9% completion probability)

Factors impacting competition probability:

  • Air yards
  • Closest defender
  • Proximity to sideline

Tua Tagovailoa to River Cracraft for an 11-yard TD (22.7% completion probability)

What a pass for Tua Tagovailoa. He threads the needle in front of Taron Johnson with Kaiir Elam and Jaquan Johnson right behind his intended target, River Cracraft. Both Johnson and Elam were within a yard of Cracraft. He swallows it up no problem and gets the Dolphins six.

Factors impacting completion probability:

Jalen Hurts to DeVonta Smith for 44-yard reception (15.9% completion percentage)

Once a week there’s typically a catch that statistically isn’t the best of the week, but visually looks like it should be. This might be it for Week 3.

Hurts and Smith connect for a huge throw here getting the Eagles within a few yards of the endzone. Smith sees the opportunity and goes up to get his ball. He comes down hard but keeps it secure.

A big-time play for a big-time player. Not the last of him you’ll see on this list.

Factors impacting catch probability:

  • Time to throw
  • Air yards
  • Closest defender(s)

Lamar Jackson to Mark Andrews for a 16-yard TD (12.7% completion probability)

This one doesn’t quite look like the others that typically show up on this list. When we think of tough completions, we often think of prayer balls that are aired out for long yardage in the hopes that the receiver can make a play on it.

This makes the list this week. It may not look like your prototypical incredible completion, but the data says it qualifies.

There’s a lot of noise here. The close proximity of this play forces stats like “closest pass rusher” and “closest pass defender” (as well as number of rushers and defenders) to be really misleading when they’re factored in to calculate the ultimate completion probability.

But taking a close look at it, it isn’t exactly as easy as the play looks at first glance. With multiple pass rushers coming his way, Jackson needs to make a move or accept a major loss of yardage to go to fourth down. He makes a snap choice to shovel the pass off into a crowded area. It ends clean and the Ravens get six, but it easily could have gone another way.

Factors impacting completion probability:

  • Closest pash rusher(s)
  • Closest defender(s)

Jalen Hurts to DeVonta Smith for a 45-yard reception (8.1% completion probability)

Could be the catch of the year right here, folks. Hurts placed this perfectly, and Smith made a great grab with the receiver right ontop of him.

At the time of the throw 2.5 yards separated Hurts and the pass rusher Efe Odaba, though he did have decent protection. The most impressive part was Smith being able to catch the ball with his back to it and within just inches of the sidelines.

Factors impacting completion probability:

  • Time to pass
  • Closest pass rusher
  • Air yards
  • Closest defender
  • Proximity to sideline

Mac Jones to DeVante Parker for 25-yard reception (7.4% completion probability)

Wow. We thought the DeVonta Smith reception was good, and this topped it. After no sub-10% completions in the first two weeks of the season, we got two in the 1pm slate alone.

After picking up a low snap, Jones finds DeVante Parker 25 yards downfield. Two defenders are within a yard of him, but Parker makes the grab look easy as he tumbles down.

Factors impacting completion probability:

  • Closest pass defender(s)
  • Proximity to sideline

Keep it close here, as we’re updating this page with the best catches of the day as we go along.



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