Tuesday night’s loss to the New York Knicks was a tough one for the Orlando Magic, as they led for the majority of the game, but they have a chance to pick up a major upset on Thursday.
Orlando hosts Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets, who could be active in today’s trade market, potentially moving guard Bones Hyland.
The Nuggets are in first place in the Western Conference, but a wild trade deadline so far has put that in jeopardy.
The Phoenix Suns acquired forward Kevin Durant from the Brooklyn Nets, immediately making them the favorites in the latest betting odds in the Western Conference.
Orlando isn’t quite in the playoff conversation this season, although the team has played very well after starting just 5-20. The Magic are a better team at home (13-14) and the Nuggets have lost three straight on the road.
Is this the perfect recipe for an upset?
Here are the odds for this game and my best bet:
Nuggets vs. Magic odds, spread and total
Nuggets vs. Magic prediction and pick
Denver has been one of my go-to teams to bet on this season, but the Nuggets are a significantly worse team on the road, and I’m fading them here.
Denver is just 12-13 straight up away from Ball Arena, going 5-10 ATS as road favorites this season. The main reason for that is the team’s lack of defense on the road (25th in defensive rating).
That’s a bad combination against Orlando, as the team’s offensive rating is nearly four points higher at home than on the road.
The Magic are over .500 since starting 5-20, and they have covered the spread at a high rate as home dogs, going 14-8 ATS this season.
Stopping Nikola Jokic is a near impossible task, but the Magic have as many big bodies as any team in the NBA to throw at him.
Given Denver’s road struggles this season, I think the Magic are able to keep this game close.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.