Canelo Alvarez will make a quick return and defend the WBA (Super), WBC and The Ring super-middleweight titles against Avni Yildirim on Feb. 27 at the at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
The fight sees Alvarez returning to action just two months after dominating Callum Smith with a unanimous decision victory that earned him the super-middleweight titles. Yildirim doesn’t pose nearly as significant of a threat as Smith did, and the oddsmakers have recognized this, as William Hill Sportsbook currently has Alvarez as a significant favorite and almost a near lock to retain his titles.
Considering that Alvarez hasn’t lost a fight since dropping a majority decision to Floyd Mayweather over seven years ago, it’s no surprise that he’s the favorite in this bout. As for Yildirim, the Turkish fighter does sport a 21-2 record and lost a spirited technical decision to Anthony Dirrell in 2019. But it’s the knockout loss to Chris Eubank Jr. that sticks out like a sore thumb.
Canelo Alvarez vs. Avni Yildirim odds
- Canelo: -5000
- Yildirim: +1400
- Draw: +3300
As evidenced here, it is nearly impossible to make a profit betting on Alvarez. One would have to bet $5,000 just to make $100, which is an absurd line that clearly demonstrates just how big of a favorite Alvarez is. As for Yildirim, at +1400, a $100 bet would turn around a return of $1400. It sounds good in theory, but given that Yildirim is a relative unknown facing arguably the best fighter on the planet, it can be seen as flushing money down the toilet.
The possibility of a draw is slim to none, and oddsmakers set it at a +3300, meaning a $100 bet would earn a return of $3300.
As you can see, there aren’t a lot of interesting betting opportunities here. So let’s look at some of the prop bets.
Canelo Alvarez vs. Avni Yildirim prop bets
- Canelo Alvarez via KO, TKO or DQ: -1600
- Canelo Alvarez via decision: +650
- Avni Yildirim via KO, TKO or DQ: +2000
- Avni Yildirim via decision: +3300
- Fight goes the distance: +700
- Fight doesn’t go the distance: -1600
The prop lines make things a little more feasible from a betting standpoint. Most anticipate Alvarez to make short work of Yildirim so he can focus on a quick return for Cinco De Mayo weekend in a potential unification bout against Billy Joe Saunders. The longer the fight goes, the more opportunity that Alvarez has to suffer an accidental cut or some form of injury. The likelihood that Alvarez would allow the fight to go the distance is slim. Again, there’s no reason to place any sort of wager on Yildirim winning. Yet and still, a $1600 wager to make $100 if Canelo wins by knockout is reserved for the high rollers.
But now let’s narrow down the scope to what round the fight will end.
- Canelo Alvarez Round 1: +650
- Canelo Alvarez Round 2: +600
- Canelo Alvarez Round 3: +500
- Canelo Alvarez Round 4: +550
- Canelo Alvarez Round 5: +600
- Canelo Alvarez Round 6 +700
- Canelo Alvarez Round 7 +900
- Canelo Alvarez Round 8 +1200
- Canelo Alvarez Round 9 +1600
- Canelo Alvarez Round 10 +2200
- Canelo Alvarez Round 11 +3300
- Canelo Alvarez Round 12 +5000
Now, that’s more like it. With these betting lines in place, one could wager on a few rounds with smaller bets for an opportunity to come out a winner.
Canelo Alvarez vs. Avni Yildirim prediction
Being aware that Alvarez is aiming to make it an early night, a wager somewhere between the second and fifth rounds appears to be the best route. The last time Alvarez had a quick turnaround, it was against Rocky Fielding in December 2018. Fielding lasted a mere three rounds before Canelo’s body punching put him down and out. It’s also worth noting that Alvarez has collected a majority of his knockouts in the sixth round and earlier. Considering that Yildirim isn’t considered a formidable opponent, an early stoppage makes the most sense.
Sporting News Pick: Canelo by (T)KO in Round 4
Best Odds: +550