Updated: August 16, 2022
The Buffalo Bills finally took over the AFC East to end decades of dominance by the Patriots. Now, they enter the 2022-23 season as the betting favorites to win the Conference Championship and the Super Bowl.
The Miami Dolphins and New York Jets still have some work to do to become contenders. Questions also surround New England and whether they can return to the playoffs. Aside from the Bills, things are still uncertain for the rest of the division.
In my AFC East Preview for 2022-23, I take a look at the latest betting odds and offer my analysis of the teams. It all ends with my predictions and betting pick on who’ll win the division.
AFC East Betting Odds for 2022-23
- Buffalo Bills; -235
- Miami Dolphins; +425
- New England Patriots; +500
- New York Jets; +2000
It’s no surprise the Buffalo Bills are heavy favorites to win the AFC East in 2022-23. They have a franchise quarterback in Josh Allen, who’s now among the elite players at his position. The Bills also have plenty of depth on both offense and defense.
What’s more surprising is that the Dolphins are favored ahead of the Patriots. I try to figure out why below.
Lastly, we have the Jets. They can’t win the division this year, but I believe they will be better than most people think.
- Notable New Players: Von Miller, Jamison Crowder, Kaiir Elam
- Position Last Season: 1st
- Head Coach: Sean McDermott
The Bills are now the biggest threat by far in the division, having won the AFC East in the previous two seasons. Not only do they have one of the best rosters in the league, but Josh Allen is arguably a top-3 quarterback.
After signing future Hall of Famer Vonn Miller and selecting Kaiir Elam in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, the Bills will be even better on defense. Their roster has impressive depth at every position.
Josh Allen, of course, is the focal point of this squad. He’s a big reason why the team is so good now, and he’ll be a prominent fixture in the NFL for the foreseeable future. Buffalo also loaded up on wide receivers during the offseason, giving Allen more options in the passing game.
Honestly, it would shock me if another team won the division. Attaining three consecutive titles in the AFC East is the goal for the Bills.
- Notable New Players: Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert, Terron Armstead, Melvin Gordon
- Position Last Season: 3rd
- Head Coach: Mike McDaniel
The Miami Dolphins made the most moves during the offseason out of any team in the AFC East. It’s given them a slight edge in the betting odds, but the Dolphins are still searching for their identity.
The team also recently hired head coach Mike McDaniel, who has his work cut out for him. He’s a disciple of the Kyle Shanahan coaching system, and many believe he’s an offensive guru. Scheme-wise, McDaniel should add some variety and innovation.
The new-look Dolphins will also have to rely on QB Tua Tagovailoa’s development. He’s now entering his third season, which could be a major turning point in his career. He’s already made plenty of improvement, but 2022 has to be the year where he proves his worth.
Acquiring Tryreek Hill in a trade with Kansas City should also be beneficial for the team. He’s arguably one of the best wide receivers in the NFL – his yards-after-catch ability is truly incredible. He should pair well with Tua and make the Dolphins a lot better on offense.
New England Patriots
- Notable New Players: Mack Wilson, Jabril Peppers, DeVante Parker
- Position Last Season: 2nd
- Head Coach: Bill Belichick
My AFC East Preview for 2022-23 wouldn’t be complete if I didn’t look at the Patriots. New England now enters its third season without QB Tom Brady at the helm, and the team hasn’t been the same since he departed for Tampa Bay.
The odds of winning the AFC East don’t favor the Patriots, and for a good reason. The team made very few moves over the offseason, and they’re lacking playmakers on offense and defense. The team is well-coached, but the roster overall isn’t very talented.
Starting QB Mac Jones is entering his second season in the NFL. He’s a competent player, but he’s also limited in terms of what he can do as a passer. Jones is still very young, but he has a lot of work to prove that he’s a great player.
Furthermore, Bill Belichick’s recipe for success seems a little obsolete now. For years, New England thrived on a powerful ground game and solid defense. Team dynamics are now evolving, and Belichick is failing to catch up.
New York Jets
- Notable New Players: Garrett Wilson (rookie), Sauce Gardner (rookie), C.J. Uzomah
- Position Last Season: 4th
- Head Coach: Robert Salah
Starting QB Zach Wilson had a shaky rookie season, but he still has plenty of upside. He enters his second year in the NFL with 13 starts under his belt. He threw nine touchdowns and 13 interceptions to go along with 2,334 passing yards last season.
The Jets are doing their best right now to surround Wilson with talent. They selected wide receiver Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall in the NFL draft, who are both top prospects. They also signed tight end C.J. Uzomah away from the Cincinnati Bengals.
Let’s also not forget that the team will retain receivers Elijah Moore and Corey Davis. Wilson has a ton of weapons, which should help him deliver better results this season.
Despite a fairly positive offseason, the franchise lacks the quality and depth to truly compete. The Jets are a longshot to become nest the AFC East winner, but they’re at least heading in the right direction.
AFC East Predictions and Betting Pick
It seems very illogical to me for anyone to bet against the Bills – the team now has a stranglehold on the AFC East. Josh Allen is also an elite quarterback who’ll dominate the NFL for the next decade, and the team has an exceptional roster depth.
- AFC East Winner Pick: Buffalo Bills; -235
- Bonus Pick: Jets to Win Over 6 Games; -120
I think the Jets are the best sleeper team in the NFL right now. Despite years of mediocrity, I believe that this season will be different. They loaded up on offense, and Zach Wilson should exceed expectations.
Here are my projected standings in the AFC East in 2022-23:
- Buffalo Bills
- New York Jets
- Miami Dolphins
- New England Patriots
More NFL Divisions Betting
If you like my AFC East preview for the upcoming season, you will be happy to hear I cover more NFL divisions too. Check out the following posts for more information on them.
I will also preview the last few AFC divisions before the start of the NFL season, so feel free to come back for more football content.