The NFC has a great game on the schedule for the NFL Divisional Round, but the Bills and Chiefs are the real marquee matchup.
We should see Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen, but the reigning Super Bowl MVP is still in the concussion protocol. However, he SHOULD suit up for this one.
Buffalo and Kansas City did face each other earlier in the season, at Buffalo. KC won that game in a low-scoring affair, 26-17.
The Chiefs ran all over the Bills in that game, gaining 245 rushing yards in the victory.
Read on to learn more about the Bills vs. Chiefs NFC Championship game odds movements and our expert’s pick.
Bills Vs. Chiefs AFC Championship Game Betting Odds
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Game Info:
- Date: Saturday, January 24, 2021 | 6:40 PM ET
- Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- TV: CBS
The odds opened in this one at -2.5 in favor of Kansas City, but just briefly. The market has moved to Chiefs -3 and Buffalo +3 across the board. The betting handle seems to favor the Chiefs’ slightly.
The total opened at 55 points and moved to 54 points rather quickly. For a brief period, it was at 53 points.
Right now, the totals odds are 54 points at BetNow Sportsbook and most other betting sites. The vig has been steady at -110 on both sides, as well.
Will Patrick Mahomes Play?
The health of Mahomes is the biggest question mark going into this game. Right now, I’d say that he will play, based on the betting markets and other reports.
However, there is still a chance he does not play. We could see a drastic move then, but I think it’s a near certainty that he is in this Sunday.
What would this do to the current odds? Well, I think once we get Mahomes confirmed in, it is possible we could see the Bills at +3.5.
This is a much better number than +3 and I may advise Buffalo Bills bettors to wait to see if this is possible.
Bills Vs. Chiefs AFC Championship Game ATS Pick
Even if we don’t get +3.5, I still think there is a lot of value with the Bills in this spot. This team, even after knocking off Baltimore with relative ease this team not getting the respect that they deserve.
The Bills shouldn’t have any issues putting up points in this matchup.
The Chiefs’ defense has seemingly “played up” in spots, like last week, but Buffalo has far more weapons in their arsenal compared to the Browns.
Kansas City may attack with their running game as they did in the first matchup, but I am not sure they will have the same success.
We saw how the Bills defended the run against Baltimore (albeit KC has a much greater downfield threat) and it was much better than earlier in the year.
Picking A Winner
Quietly, Buffalo’s defense has played a lot better in the second half of the season. They’re an underrated unit in this matchup.
I have zero doubts that Josh Allen and Company will score plenty of points on the Kansas City Chiefs defense.
I like the Bills +3 and the under 54, especially on the off chance that Mahomes doesn’t play.
Both of these numbers could look a lot better that ends up being the case.
Still, I think the Bills have a shot to win this game and the margin between these two teams is a lot closer than most people think.
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