Betting

Premier League Free Play: Manchester City at Everton


Everton vs Manchester City Betting Preview

WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on Wednesday’s Premier League showdown between Manchester City and Everton. The Citizens have won 16-straight matches and are riding a 23-game unbeaten streak since November 21. Can Everton offer any resistance to the Premier League’s top squad?

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Out of all European leagues, you would be hard pressed to find a team playing better than Manchester City right now. They look amazing. They are coming in off a 3-0 beatdown of Tottenham this past weekend in a game that was never in doubt. The scary part is that they’ve been doing this without the best midfielder on the planet in Kevin De Bruyne.

During their 16-game run, they have allowed a total of just five goals, never more than one in a match, and have kept 11 clean sheets. Their run includes multiple-goal wins over Arsenal, Chelsea, United, Liverpool and Tottenham, simply proving their dominance over the best teams in the league.

They have the best xG differential in Europe and lead the Premier League with a +1.41 xG differential per game, nearly double the next best team in the league which is Chelsea at +0.73.

Everton, after a hot start to the season, have really been tumbling as of late. They have just two wins in their last seven league games including inexcusably losing at home 2-0 on Sunday to Fulham. They also have losses to Newcastle twice this season, Southampton and Leeds. More telling, their xG numbers are not attractive with a -0.07 differential per game and have lost five straight games to Manchester City.

TAKE MANCHESTER CITY -1.25 – Line Parameter: 4% to -1.5, but pay up to -130 to get -1.25

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Meet the Capper: Nick Borrman

Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS game seven years ago. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Of course, you can’t forget the fast-growing MLS which finishes the year-round soccer schedule through the summer months in North America. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.

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